Our planet’s climate generally follows familiar patterns, but every two to seven years, a natural climate event known as El Niño can disrupt weather patterns across the world. It begins in the Pacific Ocean and can lead to changes in rainfall, including heavy rains and flooding in parts of East Africa.
In Kenya, the Meteorological Department has put the likelihood of a very strong El Niño at 81 per cent. The rains are expected to begin in mid-October and could continue into January 2027.
The Government has announced a National Contingency Plan developed with national and county agencies, humanitarian partners and security agencies. However, the Right to Food Coalition is calling for clear evidence that these plans are being put into action to protect communities at risk.
“To build public trust and strengthen preparedness, the coalition is calling for weekly, public and independently verifiable updates on El Niño preparedness from now until the rains end,” said Lisa Achieng of the Institute for Accountability Kenya (TISA).
The coalition is also calling on county governments to report whether identified flood-prone areas have working and accessible early-warning systems to alert residents before disaster strikes.
It has further urged the ministries responsible for agriculture, social protection and health, together with county governments, to show how their preparedness measures will protect people’s rights to food, health and social security without discrimination or reducing existing protections.
Mark Gachagua, a member of the Right to Food Coalition, stressed the importance of making funds available in good time.
“The National Treasury must ensure that resources already provided for in the budget can be accessed and used quickly and transparently for preparedness,” he said.
Health preparedness is another major concern. The Ministry of Health and county governments have been urged to prepare for an increase in waterborne diseases and other health risks associated with flooding.
“They should strengthen disease surveillance, pre-position essential medicines and water-treatment supplies, prepare facilities in flood-prone areas, and provide clear and accessible public guidance on safe water, food hygiene and sanitation,” said Diana Gichengo, Executive Director of TISA.
Gichengo also emphasised the need to ensure that emergency funds are ready for use and that climate-related budget allocations lead to real improvements in community safety and resilience.
She noted that the KSh 11.2 billion allocated to county climate resilience must deliver protection where people live, while the KSh 2.4 billion commitment to Nairobi’s flood resilience should lead to functioning drainage systems and safer communities.
“The greatest failure would be that Kenya was warned, had money, knew where the risks were, knew what needed to be done, and still waited until people were in danger,” Gichengo said.
Kenya has already experienced the devastating effects of floods. In 2024, flooding killed 315 people, displaced about 410,000 others and caused an estimated KSh 187 billion in damage.
These figures highlight the urgent need for early action. As the country prepares for the expected rains, the coalition is calling on the Government to turn its plans and budget commitments into practical measures that protect lives, livelihoods and access to essential services.
With the risks already known, the focus must now be on timely action, transparent use of public funds and regular updates that allow Kenyans to see whether the country is truly prepared.
